The Bitcoin Paradox: Record Adoption x Stagnant Price
Bitcoin has never been so present in the mainstream financial world as in 2024.MicroStrategyThey have accumulated more than 214,000 BTCs (about $14 billion) over the past two years, while traditional banks such as the U.S.JPMorganand OStandard CharteredThey are already offering cryptocurrency-related products to their customers.BTG Pactualand aXP investmentsThey also started to include Bitcoin in investment funds and digital wallets.GlassnodeThe number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 1 BTC has grown by 42% by 2024, a clear sign that individuals and institutions are accumulating the currency.
However, as the adoption progresses at a broad pace, the price of Bitcoin oscillates in a narrow range, far from the historical heights of $60,000 or $70,000.Difference Between Adoption and Price— which analysts call the “institutionalization effect” — reveals a new phase of the market: Bitcoin ceased to be a speculative asset to becomeStrategic Reserve AssetsBut it still faces challenges to reflect that value in the secondary market.
Why does the price of Bitcoin not accompany adoption?
The first key point is theInstitutional liquidityWhen big players enter the market, they do not buy or sell aggressively as individual investors. Companies like MicroStrategy, for example, buy Bitcoin with operating profits or issuing debts, not to trade in the short term.CoinsharesIncome flows to Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. exceeded $15 billion in 2024, but that demand is slowly absorbed by the market, without immediate price pressure.
Another factor is theRegulation and fear of manipulationThe cryptocurrency market is still sensitive to interventions from large holders, known as “whales”.U.S. Securities Commission (SEC)In addition, it has intensified regulations on exchanges, which has reduced volatility, but also limited the entry of new investors.The Federal RecipeIt regulated the taxation of crypto assets in 2023, which brought more legal certainty, but also discouraged short-term operations.
Finally, there is themacroeconomic effectsBitcoin continues to be seen as a protection against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, but by 2024, interest rates in the U.S. and Europe began to fall, reducing the attractiveness of risky assets.The Federal ReserveBitcoinined the interest rate at 5.25% by June, while Bitcoin failed to break major technical resistance, such as the 200-week moving average ($71,000 in June).
Decentralization in Cheque: DAOs and the Institutional Dilemma
As Bitcoin gains space in the traditional world, another sector of the crypto ecosystem is facing a crossroads:Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAO)Projects like aMakerdaoand aUniswapThey were created to operate without hierarchies, but now need to make concessions to attract institutional investment.
A report fromMessengersHe noted that by 2024, at least 15 DAOs have sought partnerships with venture capital funds or banks in exchange for less decentralized control.AaveThe DAO has approved changes to its protocol to allow institutions to borrow tokens without having to go through the community’s cry.CointelegraphThe Investigatorby Lucas Nuzzi.
Initiatives such as thePagBank Cryptoand aFoxbitThey have explored hybrid models, combining centralized security with community governance.The Securities Commission (CVM)It has not yet defined specific rules for DAOs, which leaves Brazilian projects in a legal limbo.
Vietnamese: the new front of crypto regulation
While Brazil is still discussing regulation, Vietnam takes a decisive step toward legalizing exchanges. In June 2024, the Vietnamese government announced that five companies — including bank affiliates and a local conglomerate — are in dispute for the right to operate the country’s first cryptocurrency brokers. The measure is part of an effort to contain the offshore market, which moves around $30 billion a year in Vietnam, according to estimates from the National Bank of Vietnam.Chainalysis.
The initiative is a reflection of a global trend: governments are realizing thatProhibition does not work.Brazil, for example, raised R$5 billion in taxes on cryptocurrencies in 2023, according to the report.The Federal RecipeIf the Vietnamese model is right, other emerging countries — such as theArgentina isand aand NigeriaYou can follow the same path.
What does this mean for the Brazilian investor?
For the Brazilian investor, these moves have three direct implications:
Bitcoin as a value reserve, not a speculationBy 2020, 80% of transactions were speculative; today, more than 60% of bitcoin in circulation have not moved for more than a year, according to data from theGlassnodeThis suggests that the market is behaving more like a “digital gold” than as a high-risk asset.For the Brazilian, this may mean an opportunity for diversification in long-term portfolios, but with patience to wait for high cycles.
Regulation as an ally but with risksThe Brazilian regulation, although bureaucratic, brought legal certainty.The 15% tax on capital gains and the obligation to declare crypto assets above R$5,000 in the Income Tax reduced the uncertainty.CVMand NAThe Federal RecipeYou can change the rules at any time.Binanceand aThe Bitcoin MarketThey have already been adapted, but the risk of cascading licenses always exists.
A Potential, But High Risk NicheIf you are an enthusiast of decentralization, DAOs can be an interesting field, but with reservations.Banklessor aGitcoinThey still offer opportunities for community governance, but the entry of institutions can dilute the control of ordinary users.In addition, the lack of regulation in Brazil makes these investments more risky than traditional applications.
In short, the crypto market is in a transitional phase: from a niche of speculators to a mature but still volatile ecosystem. Bitcoin, despite its low-price adoption, remains the most secure asset in the industry. DAOs and emerging exchanges, such as the Vietnamese, represent high-risk and potential bets — as long as the investor is aware of regulatory and governance challenges.
One thing is certain: Brazil, like Vietnam, is on the global radar as a strategic market for cryptocurrencies.The question that remains is: how long will the price of Bitcoin take to reflect this new reality?