Global markets, including cryptocurrencies, felt the impact of the recent pause in tensions between the United States and Iran in late March 2025.President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend, for five days, attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure not only boosted U.S. stocks by $1.7 trillion, but also caused a 15% drop in oil prices and a record volatility in oil prices.The Bitcoin (BTC)The Brazilian Market ofDecentralized Finance (DeFi)The episode serves as a reminder of the fragility of digital assets in the face of geopolitical events — and the importance of protection strategies in an uncertain scenario.
The relationship between war, oil and cryptocurrencies
When a geopolitical conflict shakes the Middle East, markets react immediately. Petroleum, as a strategic commodity, is usually the first to oscillate. On March 23, 2025, the news of the pause in hostilities between the US and Iran caused the price of the barrel to fall 15% in a few hours. This fall, in turn, generated a domino effect: investors sought refuge in assets considered more secure, such as U.S. stocks, which rose $1.7 trillion in capitalization. On the other hand, Bitcoin, which is increasingly seen as a “digital gold”, also suffered from volatility. In a matter of hours, the main cryptocurrency of the market came back more than 8%, according to dataCoinMarketCap.
But why has Bitcoin, which has historically benefited from crises such as hedging against inflation, fallen? The explanation lies in the growing correlation between traditional markets and digital assets. Institutional investors, who hold both stocks and cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, tend to sell higher-risk assets in times of instability. In addition, the fall in oil price, which has a direct impact on global inflation, can signal a decrease in demand for inflationary hedge — and Bitcoin is often used as protection against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
In Brazil, where DeFi is in frank expansion — with more than R$20 billion in total blocked value (TVL) in protocols such asAave, Uniswap e CompoundEvents like this reinforce the need for diversification and risk management.”In a scenario of geopolitical uncertainty, Brazilian DeFi protocols need to be prepared to deal with liquidity and volatility“He saysby Marcos Vinícius PupoAnalyst of CryptocurrenciesXP investments. "Brazilian investors should be attentive not only to BTC, but also to the health of the protocols they use, such as loans on stablecoins or yield farming."
DeFi in Brazil: Opportunities and risks amid volatility
The Brazilian DeFi market has emerged globally, not only by the growth of TVL, but also by the innovation in decentralized solutions.B3 Coin, which allows the trading of tokens from companies listed in B3, andBrazilian ghosts, which offers fast and inexpensive transactions on blockchain, has attracted investors interested in decentralized fixed income. However, the recent turbulence in the crypto asset market serves as a warning: DeFi, although promising, is not immune to external risks.
One of the main risks is the dependence on stablecoins attached to the dollar, such as theUSDTand OUSDCWhen the dollar rises against the real – as happened after the news of the pause in the conflict – Brazilian investors may face losses in arbitration operations or DeFi loans.UniswapIt can become scarce at times of high volatility, leading to slides (slippage) and losses for traders.
According to data fromChainalysisBrazil is the second largest cryptocurrency market in Latin America, behind only Argentina.In 2024, the country recorded a trading volume of more than $100 billion, with a strong stake in DeFi.The Brazilian is avid for income above average, and DeFi offers just thatHe commentedby Eduardo ReisCEO ofBrazil DeFi Alliance. "But it is crucial that investors understand that, in an unstable global climate, risks increase."
The other issue is regulation. a.The Securities Commission (CVM)It is still setting rules for DeFi in Brazil, which can bring both security and limitations to protocols.Aaveand OMakerdaoThe company continues to operate in the country, offering loans in cryptocurrencies without the need for banking intermediation — an attraction for many Brazilians.
Impact on the Brazilian market: what to expect?
For Brazilian investors, the recent fall in Bitcoin and oil volatility represent a resistance test for the DeFi ecosystem.Reduced search for high income, with investors choosing more conservative strategies, such as staking on Ethereum or loans on stablecoins at fixed rates.Total Value Locked (TVL)Brazilian prices have fallen by 12% since the beginning of March, according to the report.Defiantly.
Historically, the cryptocurrency market in Brazil tends to benefit from moments of global crisis, when investors are looking for alternatives outside the traditional system.”When real depreciates or interest rates rise, cryptocurrencies become an escape valve“Explainsby Fernanda RibeiroResearcher ofInstitute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA).
Another important factor is the growth ofReal World Assets (RWA)Brazilian protocols are exploiting tokenization of assets such as real estate, public bonds and even carbon credits, offering investors a way to diversify without relying exclusively on the volatility of BTC or altcoins.Myntand aHashdexThey are already advancing in this segment, attracting both institutional investors and individuals.
In the long run, the Brazilian DeFi can benefit from a global movement of institutional adoption.BlackRockand aFidelityIf this trend consolidates, Brazil — which is already a hub of innovation in fintechs — can become a reference in DeFi in Latin America.”DeFi is not just about speculation; it is about creating a more inclusive and transparent financial system.“He saysby Pedro MagallanesFounder of theBrahmaOne of the largest DeFi platforms in the country.
The Brazilian DeFi in an Uncertain World
The recent turbulence in the crypto-asset market, triggered by geopolitical events, serves as a reminder that DeFi, despite its promises, is not immune to external risks.
On the other hand, the resilience of the Brazilian DeFi market – driven by an increasingly interested population in digital assets and by innovations such as RWA tokenization – offers a promising scenario. As the world faces economic and political uncertainties, DeFi can consolidate itself as a viable alternative for those seeking greater control over their investments.“Do your own research”After all, in a decentralized market, the risk – and the opportunity – is always yours.