Fed keeps interest rates stable and geopolitical uncertainty presses the market: what is the impact on Bitcoin?

U.S. currency in pause and the world in alert: how does it affect Bitcoin?

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, announced last week the maintenance of interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50%, interrupting a cycle of rise that has been dragging since 2022. The decision, widely expected by the market, signals caution in the face of an increasingly influenced economic scenario by external factors, especially the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Iran isEnergy prices and global inflation are still high, which justifies a pause in monetary tightening.

The Brazilian real, for example, has been sensitive to movements of the dollar and U.S. monetary policy.“Digital Gold”In times of uncertainty, they may suffer from the volatility generated by this context.But how exactly does this relationship work and what should investors observe?

From 2008 to 2024: Banks transfer risks and Brazil follows closely

While the Fed is analyzing the macroeconomic scenario, another warning has attracted attention: the growth of the so-called“Shadow Banking”According to a report from theCryptoSlateU.S. banks have transferred the equivalent to18 million bitcoinsThese institutions, such as private funds and non-bank credit platforms, take risks that were previously in the balance sheets of banks, but are now out of the radar of the Federal Reserve.

In Brazil, the expansion of credit through fintechs and peer-to-peer lending platforms (P2P) has grown rapidly. By 2023, the volume of transactions with cryptocurrencies traded in stablecoins such as USDC has already exceeded R $ 2 billion, according to data from theThe Federal RecipeWhile Brazil is not directly affected by the risks of shadow banking in the U.S., the growing integration between global markets can bring indirect reflections.

Japan adopts stablecoins for credit: global trend or risk?

In parallel, Japan has taken another step to legitimizing stablecoins in the financial system by launching a loan program in Japan.USDCThrough the PlatformSBI VC TradeThe initiative allows users to lend their assets directly to the broker, which in turn can reuse those funds in its operations — a common practice in the traditional market but still in the regulatory phase in the crypto universe.

For the Brazilian market, which has one of the largest volumes of stablecoins trading in Latin America, this Japanese measure may be an indication that the use of digital currencies lastreated in dollars or yen is becoming more mainstream.420%According to aChainalysisIf Japan, one of the world’s leading financial markets, is opening up this model, what prevents Brazil from following the same path?

However, Brazilian experts warn: the lack of clear regulation on cryptocurrency loans is still a questionable point.Risk CommunicationOn exposure to digital assets, but there are still no specific rules for credit transactions lastreated on stablecoins. Meanwhile, platforms like SBI VC Trade in Japan show that the market is advancing even without proper supervision.

What will happen to Bitcoin in the coming months?

In this context, Bitcoin, which has already ranged between $60,000 and $70,000 since the beginning of the year, may face new challenges. Maintaining high interest rates in the U.S. tends to keep the dollar valued, which historically pressures assets in currencies like BTC. In addition, the tension in the Middle East, which has already led to an increase in interest rates.5%The oil price in March could worsen if there is an aggravation of the conflict.

On the other hand, if the Fed signals interest rate cuts in 2024 — something some analysts already predict for the second half — Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory, especially if investors seek protection against inflation. In November 2022, for example, after the fall of FTX, BTC fell to about $15,000, but recovered in 2023 thanks to optimism with the institutional adoption and approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

For the Brazilian investor, the lesson is clear: volatility is inherent to the crypto asset market, and global macroeconomic decisions, such as the Fed, can speed up or slow price movements.There are no guaranteesBut understanding the context is crucial for making more informed decisions.

Another point to be observed is the growth of stablecoins in Brazil.R$10 billionIn the country, according to aCoinGeckoThese assets are becoming an alternative for those seeking protection against real devaluation or simply wanting to participate in the crypto market without direct exposure to Bitcoin volatility.

What do Brazilian experts say?

The Economistby Fernando UlrichCryptocurrency expert and author of the bookBitcoin: The Currency in the Digital Ageand commented:“The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates stable reflects a strategy of waiting to see how the global economy will behave in the coming months.For Bitcoin, this could mean another period of consolidation, but also an opportunity for those who believe in the long term.”

The Analystby Carolina Paschoalottoby DaMessari in BrazilIt emphasizes that:“Brazil is increasingly connected to the global cryptocurrency market, not only by the volume of transactions, but also by adopting innovative solutions, such as stablecoins loans.

Uncertainty as the new normal

On the one hand, we have the temporary stability in U.S. interest rates and the search for safer assets.DiversifiedBeware of regulatory changes.

The combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical and regulatory factors will be decisive for its performance in the coming months. Meanwhile, stablecoins are gaining space as a bridge between the traditional financial system and the crypto world — but still with risks that need to be understood.

One thing is certain: the uncertainty scenario has come to stay.And in this environment, knowledge and caution are the best weapons for anyone wishing to navigate — or invest — in this universe.