Ethereum: Citi cuts outlook to $100,000 and analysts debate future after U.S. regulatory delays

Sao Paulo, 25 June 2025— Ethereum (ETH) faces an uncertainty scenario after bankingCitigroupThe international financial institution cut its 12-month target for Ethereum from $150,000 to just $100,000, while Bitcoin also had its adjusted forecast from $143,000 to $112,000.

U.S. regulation limits Ethereum’s potential, Citi points out

According to the report released by Citigroup, the delay in the advancement of crypto laws in the U.S. Congress and regulatory agencies such as theSecurities and Exchange Commission(SEC) is preventing the cryptocurrency market from reaching itsFull potentialEthereum, the second largest cryptocurrency in market capitalization, has been impacted by this legal uncertainty, since the asset’s classification assecurityorcommodityIt has not yet been clearly defined.

In a statement, the bank's analysts pointed out that “the lack of a definitive regulatory framework in the U.S. reduces the confidence of large institutional investors, who avoid allocating resources to assets with indefinite legal status.”On the 24th, the ETH closed the price at $2,210.According to data fromCoinGecko.

Ethereum may be about to break technical resistance, but caution dominates the market

While Citigroup adopts a more conservative stance, some market analysts see positive signals for Ethereum in the short term.Hash rate— a metric that measures the security of the network — over the last 30 days.Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4844, which reduces transaction costs in the execution layer, has been pointed out as a supportive factor for institutional adoption.

Technical analysis of the German websiteBTC and EchoEthereum is forming a standard ofTriangle Ascending(upward triangle) on the daily chart, a move that, if confirmed, could lead the price to test $3,800 soon.Another point of attention is the ETH’s fear and greed index, which continues in neutral territory (52), far from euphoria (75+), suggesting there is still room for recovery.

Impact on Brazilian market: investors expect regulatory clarity

The Brazilian cryptocurrency market, which is already one of the largest in the world in terms of trading volume, is attentive to global movements.With the absence of a specific regulation in Brazil — despite the draft law on digital assets being in Congress — local investors tend to follow the trend.Feeledof the major international players.

According to data fromThe Federal Recipe, the number of individuals with investments in cryptocurrencies in Brazil grew 35% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 1.8 million CPFs registered. Of this total, about 28% said they own Ethereum in their wallets. "Brazilians are increasingly exposed to crypto, but the lack of clear regulation is still a risk factor. Many prefer to wait for definitions before increasing their positions," he said.Thiago Soares, analyst at XP Investments.

“Ethereum has one of the most robust networks on the market, with growing adoption in sectors like DeFi and NFTs. If U.S. regulation is positive, ETH may be one of the biggest beneficiaries,” he assessed.Fernando Ulrich, economist and author of books on cryptocurrencies.

What to expect for the next few months?

The U.S. regulatory agenda is expected to be the main driver for Ethereum in the second half.Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act(FIT21), recently approved in the House of Representatives, is seen as an important step, but still needs to be approved in the Senate to become a law.commodity(And not onesecurityThis could lead to institutional investments.

Another factor to be considered is theHalving of EthereumIt is planned for October 2025, which will halt the issue of new ETHs. Historically, events like this have boosted prices in the past, although there are no guarantees.Analysts ofmessengersIt is estimated that a decrease in ETH inflation could lead to aRally25% to 40% by the end of the year if the macroeconomic scenario remains favorable.

“Investors are divided between the expectation of a positive catalyst and the fear that regulation will take longer than expected,” he explained.Carolina Costa, partner of crypto asset manager Starta Capital.

One thing is certain: as long as the uncertainty persists, volatility should remain high. For those who already own Ethereum, experts recommend keeping the long-term strategy and avoiding excessive leverage. For those seeking to enter the market, the tip is caution and diversification.