The cryptocurrency market is experiencing another period of volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) testing critical supports after a drop that led to significant settlements. However, a long-standing theory, recently reaffirmed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, suggests that the digital asset may be following its four-year historical cycle pattern, with a substantial recovery forecast for the last quarter of 2024.
The Quadrennial Pattern and the Scaramucci Analysis
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, also known as “halving cycle”, postulates that the asset price tends to rise for three years and go through a consolidation or correction phase in the fourth year, which usually coincides with the year of the halving – an event that reduces the reward of miners by half. Scaramucci, a prominent figure in the traditional financial sector that has become a defender of cryptocurrencies, pointed out that this historical pattern seems to be beginning itself. He projected that, after the current adjustment period, Bitcoin should resume its upward trajectory in the fourth quarter of this year. This view is based not only on price history but also on key factors such as growing institutionalization, the approval of ETFs in the United States and the perception of BTC as a reserve value in an
Recent Volatility and Liquidation Scenario
Long-term optimism contrasts with the immediate reality of the market. In the recent weekend, the price of Bitcoin fell to the $68,000 region, causing a wave of settlements that approached $400 million across the crypto ecosystem, according to aggregator data. This move caused the asset to test back support levels considered “unreliable” by some analysts, increasing the short-term selling pressure. However, amid this turbulence, technical indicators have drawn attention: the formation of a new “golden cross” on the daily BTC chart – when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average – is traditionally interpreted as a sign of a downward-to-high trend reversal, anticipating the recovery movement anticipated by cyclists.
Market impact and outlook for the end of the year
The confirmation of the four-year cycle and the possible rise in Q4 have significant implications for different market players. For long-term investors (HODLers), the current phase can be seen as an opportunity for accumulation before the next valuation phase. For the Brazilian market, which has an active community and an expressive volume of trading, understanding these global cycles is crucial for making informed decisions, especially considering the exposure of the Real to the fluctuations of the dollar and Bitcoin. In addition, the eventual rise in the price of BTC tends to have a "drawn" effect on the entire altcoins and Web3 projects ecosystem, increasing the available venture capital and interest in innovations in the area.
Meanwhile, the Web3 ecosystem continues to evolve regardless of quotations, with events such as the Paris Blockchain Week 2026 already announcing the participation of projects focused on useful Proof of Work and computing for decentralized AI, demonstrating that innovation in the infrastructure layer follows its course.
Conclusion: Between the Short Term and the Cyclical Vision
The cryptocurrency market is at a typical crossroads of its cycles: daily volatility and settlements generate anxiety, while analysis based on historical patterns and macroeconomic foundations point to a more positive horizon in the medium term. The reaffirmation of the four-year theory by a fund manager like Scaramucci adds weight to this narrative. For the investor, whether in Brazil or abroad, the moment requires a careful assessment of risk appetite and time horizon. The combination of technical signals such as the golden cross with the cyclic perspective offers an analytical framework that goes beyond emotional reactions to price fluctuations, highlighting the importance of a strategy based on both technology and long-term market movements.