What Is the Supply in Profit Metric of Bitcoin?
The metric“Supply in Profit”(Offer in Profit, in free translation) is one of the most observed on-chain indicators by Bitcoin analysts.Total Supplythe cryptocurrency that is currently in a profitable position, that is, whose purchase price (average price paid) is lower than the current market price.
When that percentage drops to levels close to or below 50%, as happened in February 2025, it signals that a significant percentage of Bitcoin holders are holding their positions.“In the red”Historically, these periods have been associated with phases of strong selling pressure, discouragement of the market and subsequent opportunities toLong term accumulation.
Current Market Context and the Fall of the Metric
The recent Standard Chartered report, mentioned in the news, highlights a scenario of prolonged correction in the altcoins market.The Perpetual FutureThis movement of capital may indicate a search for alternatives amidst the volatility of cryptocurrencies.
In this context, the fall of Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” below 50% is gaining even more relevance. It reflects the current sentiment of the market: many investors who have bought on higher levels are now holding positions with loss, which can create a loss.Exhaustive sales floor.
History and the Case of the 655%
As pointed out by Cointelegraph’s analysis, the last time that this metric reached a similar level (below 50%), Bitcoin subsequently recorded a monumental appreciation of the value of bitcoin.approximately 655%This historical event serves as a powerful benchmark, but it is crucial to analyze it with caution.
Today’s cryptocurrency market is radically different from that previous period. Institutional adoption, developing regulation, maturity of infrastructure and global macroeconomy are new factors that influence the cycle.Do not expect the same repetition.However, the pattern that phases of extreme pain in the market (reflected below "Supply in Profit") often preced periods of recovery and growth, remains a fundamental principle of behavioral analysis.
Difference Between Correlation and Causality
It is important to understand that the metric "Supply in Profit" is aThermometer of FeelingsInstead, it identifies times when sales by discouraged holders may be exhausting, opening room for a trend shift when other fundamental and macroeconomic factors align.
What Does This Mean for Investors in 2025?
For the Brazilian investor, this scenario presents important considerations:
- The Long Term Perspective:Indicators such as this are more relevant for strategiesBuy and Hold(buy and save) rather than for short-term trading. They suggest potential opportunities for entry to levels considered historically low in relation to the cycle.
- Diversity and Patience:The outflow of XRP ETFs, after a strong initial race, reminds us that market enthusiasm for specific products can be volatile.This reinforces the importance of diversification and patience, principles that also apply to Bitcoin.
- Analysis of the price:Moments like this highlight the importance of looking atFundamental metrics and on-chain, such as the "Supply in Profit", Hash Rate and address activity, rather than being guided only by daily price volatility.
Risks and Additional Considerations
No indicator is infallible. Global macroeconomic situation, regulatory decisions in major economies (such as the US and EU) and unexpected events ("black swans") can prolong downward phases or alter expected trajectories.
Conclusion: Looking to the future
The fall of Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” below 50% is a significant technical signal that echoes past accumulation patterns. For the Brazilian market, accustomed to volatility, this serves as a reminder of the cyclic nature of risky assets. While the altcoins market still seeks a direction and products such as specific ETFs see oscillating flows, Bitcoin, in its network foundations, shows through this metric a possibleScenario of Seller Exhaustion.
The way forward will depend on a combination of factors, but periods of low “Supply in Profit” are historically times when investors with a strong stomach and long-term vision begin to pay more attention.