Introduction to Bitcoin in 2026
In March 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the psychological mark of R$70,000, sparking heated debate between technical analysts and on-chain data experts. This article explores the factors that pushed the price of BTC to this level and what on-chain indicators reveal about the health of the market.
The Impact of the Global Market on Bitcoin
Recently, the global market was shaken by a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which significantly affected oil prices. Unlike expected, traders did not seek refuge in Bitcoin, but instead sold it, demonstrating that BTC is still seen as a risk asset rather than a refuge value.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
Despite the recovery to over $70,000, the technical analysis of Bitcoin in 2026 is still considered mitigated. This means that although the price is in a resistance zone, there are no clear signs of a sustainable high trend. Technical indicators such as the RSI and moving averages show mixed signs, indicating caution among analysts.
On-Chain Data and Market Health
On-chain data, which analyzes transactions on Bitcoin’s blockchain, also presents a complex scenario. The activity in big investor portfolios (whales) and the distribution of active addresses suggest that although there is interest, there is still no strong consensus on the future direction of the BTC price.
Gambling and cryptocurrencies in Brazil
While Bitcoin is facing volatility, another digital finance sector is rising in Brazil: the predictive betting markets. The Kalshi platform, known for allowing betting on future events, recently launched its operations in Brazil, a country already facing a gambling addiction crisis. This move raises questions about the regulation and social impact of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets.
Regulation and Social Impact
Kalshi’s arrival in Brazil takes place at a time when the country is reviewing its laws on cryptocurrencies and online gambling. Experts warn of the risks of addiction and the need for robust regulation to protect investors and users.
The Conclusion
By 2026, Bitcoin continues to be an asset of great interest but with significant challenges. Technical and on-chain analysis suggests caution, while the global market demonstrates that BTC is not yet seen as a refuge value. Simultaneously, the growth of predictive betting markets in Brazil highlights the need for careful regulation to balance innovation and consumer protection.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin considered a refuge value in 2026?
No, in 2026, Bitcoin is still seen as a risky asset, as demonstrated by the mass sale during the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
What are the main on-chain indicators for Bitcoin?
Key on-chain indicators include the activity of big investor portfolios (whales) and the distribution of active addresses on the blockchain.
How does Kalshi impact the Brazilian market?
Kalshi is bringing innovation to the predictive betting markets in Brazil, but also raises concerns about regulation and gambling addiction.